Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
