Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Selection Procedure
A number of figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
