Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Drop Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The mean figure of per-day homicides each month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to recent government figures. However, public safety analysts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to signal improved national safety.

Notable Drop in Daily Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidency in the previous September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we’ve had in these past months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's highly military efforts to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. Since then, murders have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety plan for an apparently steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “We have a strategy, there is monitoring of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced collaboration between government authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety researchers warned that relying on murder numbers to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is notably true given the uptick in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it might mask periods when there were especially spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to official figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled conflict. Last month there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to build a story of security. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas concluded.